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Myanmar
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Myanmar Conflict Updates

A monthly analysis covering key dynamics, conflict trends, and political developments related to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.

May 2024 832 new events
Threat of communal violence grows in western and central Myanmar

Anti-junta forces continue to make gains on the battlefield. But tense social dynamics and the consequences of protracted violence threaten to derail their momentum.

Events from April 2024
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Attack/armed clash
515
Air/drone strike
184
Infrastructure destruction
68
Remote explosives/IEDs
64
Crackdowns
1
Southeast
218
Dry Zone
178
Rakhine
157
Northeast
132
Northwest
86
Lower Myanmar
61
April 2024 934 new events
Melee in Myawaddy: Resistance battles junta in key border town

Resistance forces almost dislodged the regime from a key trading town on the Thai-Myanmar border. But a third party altered the course of battle.

Events from March 2024
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Attack/armed clash
571
Air/drone strike
197
Infrastructure destruction
91
Remote explosives/IEDs
73
Crackdowns
1
Southeast
219
Dry Zone
185
Northeast
179
Rakhine
136
Northwest
130
Lower Myanmar
85
March 2024 884 new events
Myanmar’s regime shrinks further towards the centre

The junta has suffered another extraordinary loss in the western state of Rakhine. Its control over the peripheries is slipping, though its grip on the centre appears firm.

Events from January 2023
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Attack/armed clash
600
Air/drone strike
139
Remote explosives/IEDs
75
Infrastructure destruction
70
Crackdowns
0
Northeast
248
Rakhine
193
Dry Zone
166
Southeast
127
Lower Myanmar
90
Northwest
60
Events from February 2024
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Attack/armed clash
493
Air/drone strike
162
Infrastructure destruction
79
Remote explosives/IEDs
57
Crackdowns
1
Dry Zone
192
Southeast
164
Rakhine
139
Northeast
107
Northwest
101
Lower Myanmar
89
January 2024 1056 new events
Problems extend beyond battlefield for Myanmar’s battered regime

Poor decision-making and an inflexible strategy are compounding the junta’s losses and driving discontent among army commanders.

Events from December 2023
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Attack/armed clash
675
Air/drone strike
229
Remote explosives/IEDs
80
Infrastructure destruction
71
Crackdowns
1
Northeast
326
Rakhine
174
Dry Zone
172
Southeast
148
Northwest
129
Lower Myanmar
107
December 2023 1108 new events
Is Myanmar’s regime at risk of collapse?

Three powerful ethnic armies have delivered a severe blow to the regime in Myanmar’s northern Shan State. But elsewhere in the country the outlook is mixed.

Events from November 2023
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Attack/armed clash
825
Air/drone strike
161
Remote explosives/IEDs
68
Infrastructure destruction
54
Crackdowns
0
Northeast
405
Northwest
181
Southeast
170
Dry Zone
161
Rakhine
107
Lower Myanmar
84
November 2023 887 new events
Operation 1027 reshapes Myanmar’s post-coup war

A powerful ethnic alliance with close ties to China has inflicted on the Myanmar regime its worst battlefield setback in decades and inspired a wave of attacks by other opponents across the country. But unless the military suffers a total collapse of cohesion and morale, the regime is likely to fight on.

Events from October 2023
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Attack/armed clash
614
Infrastructure destruction
99
Air/drone strike
97
Remote explosives/IEDs
76
Crackdowns
1
Dry Zone
314
Northeast
272
Southeast
136
Lower Myanmar
80
Northwest
79
Rakhine
6
October 2023 805 new events
Myanmar regime brings significant escalation to the doorstep of key opponent

A regime offensive aims to break the military alliance between the Kachin Independence Army and resistance forces fighting in central Myanmar.

Events from September 2023
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Attack/armed clash
578
Infrastructure destruction
89
Air/drone strike
87
Remote explosives/IEDs
51
Crackdowns
0
Dry Zone
249
Northeast
210
Southeast
167
Northwest
111
Lower Myanmar
63
Rakhine
5
September 2023 818 new events
Fighting rages along Myanmar’s transport routes

The junta’s opponents are contesting roads, rivers and railways throughout the country, but the regime retains sufficient control over supply lines to sustain its offensives.

Events from July 2023
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Attack/armed clash
644
Infrastructure destruction
93
Remote explosives/IEDs
90
Air/drone strike
86
Crackdowns
0
Dry Zone
281
Southeast
237
Northeast
170
Northwest
116
Lower Myanmar
103
Rakhine
6
Events from August 2023
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Attack/armed clash
569
Infrastructure destruction
99
Air/drone strike
78
Remote explosives/IEDs
71
Crackdowns
1
Dry Zone
291
Southeast
172
Northeast
147
Northwest
116
Lower Myanmar
92
Rakhine
0
July 2023 814 new events
Junta tactics shift in Myanmar’s war-torn Dry Zone

To counter the rise of new armed groups, the junta and its proxies have razed an estimated 53,000 civilian homes across Myanmar’s Dry Zone, the epicentre of the resistance movement. Beginning in 2023, however, junta forces appeared to shift tactics, launching a more-direct assault on resistance groups.

Events from June 2023
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Attack/armed clash
535
Remote explosives/IEDs
102
Infrastructure destruction
91
Air/drone strike
86
Crackdowns
0
Dry Zone
288
Southeast
231
Northeast
107
Northwest
107
Lower Myanmar
80
Rakhine
1
June 2023 679 new events
Battle for Kayah is key for Myanmar junta and its opponents

The battle for Kayah State, which is strategically located between resistance strongholds in the Dry Zone and the southeast, is now the longest episode of sustained, relatively high-intensity combat since Myanmar’s post-coup war began.

Events from May 2023
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Attack/armed clash
436
Remote explosives/IEDs
91
Infrastructure destruction
77
Air/drone strike
75
Crackdowns
0
Southeast
204
Dry Zone
194
Northwest
109
Northeast
108
Lower Myanmar
63
Rakhine
1
May 2023 728 new events
Myanmar’s conflict intensifies as use of firepower expands

The Myanmar military is ramping up pressure on resistance forces and their civilian supporters with increasingly destructive displays of firepower. Violence is intensifying, and the humanitarian crisis is worsening.

Events from April 2023
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Attack/armed clash
443
Infrastructure destruction
106
Remote explosives/IEDs
94
Air/drone strike
84
Crackdowns
1
Southeast
209
Dry Zone
206
Northeast
134
Northwest
124
Lower Myanmar
53
Rakhine
2